Lack of systems are highlighted in turbulent times. Ever feel like you’re riding a rollercoaster in the dark? The swings in customer demand are more frequent and more volatile. You can’t see what’s around the curve.
Recent demand patterns are significantly more erratic than past years due to recent problems such as tightened credit availability for businesses, uncertain government actions, global financial concerns, and consumer housing defaults.
It’s more difficult to apply prior forecasting models to accurately predict future demands. Organizations who lack a flexible operational system will find themselves in one of two camps. The first camp; comprised of organizations who are seeking to maintain high service levels and competitive lead times, will find themselves with excess underutilized costs during the valleys. In the other camp are the organizations seeking to maintain lean initiatives, the low cost operations will find themselves losing out on sales, fighting the high costs of overtime, expediting, as well as quality issues. Imagine the stresses encountered in servicing these ups and downs.
Selecting the right model for your organization will vary with your contribution margins, switching costs of customers, and competitive position with other customer alternative solutions. I wish it were simple to say which model is right for you. However, what is simple to say is that the best organizations, the companies whose profits have grown rapidly during uncertain times are those who have a model that is more than “just lean”.
They have a nimble, flexible operating system that is both low in waste but can also adjust quickly and effectively. One client ,who was in a very unpredictable crisis response business, developed a flexible operation which allowed them to increase capacity 500% in less than 3 months. All while opening a new facility with a new product and then quickly ceasing the operation to secure a one-time major order from a long-time customer.
The customer had planned on providing the work to many suppliers due to the quick need. They didn’t realize that one organization was equipped to support such a major ramp-up and then having the discipline to end operations in a profitable manner. Customers do not want to pay for their suppliers ramp-up expenses.
In order to develop a flexible and nimble system, the leader began by conducting mock drills to determine what facets of their organization were pliable and which ones are lean, but inflexible. It is important to review both your operational system as well as your management capacity. Can your team effectively handle a 500% surge in 3 months without much increase in fixed overhead or supervision? Does your quality system, and training methods support a ramp-up of new employees that ensure your quality is maintained during the surge? Does your team have the right visibility to make the effective ramp-down decision in a timely manner so you don’t hold on to excess resources “just-in-case” they are needed only to find out they were not needed after seeing your gross margins decline.
Flexible operations have provided many organizations a competitive advantage and profitable business model during yo-yo demand periods.
